Idaho St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	268.0
Current RPI:	268
Expected SOS:	319
Current SOS:	319
Current Record:	12-16
Expected Record:	12-16
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-4
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	303
Expected OOC SOS:	335

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-16	268.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Idaho St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	94-74	L	0%
11-14	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	H	71-84	L	0%
11-18	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	83-62	L	0%
11-22	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	62-54	L	0%
11-27	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	A	73-67	L	0%
12-6	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	74-66	W	100%
12-18	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	86-62	W	100%
12-21	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	85-71	L	0%
12-23	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	55-67	W	100%
12-30	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	60-62	W	100%
1-4	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	93-78	W	100%
1-6	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	64-60	W	100%
1-11	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	A	81-58	L	0%
1-13	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	A	94-80	L	0%
1-18	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	83-87	L	0%
1-20	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	71-65	W	100%
1-27	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	70-77	L	0%
2-1	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	A	61-63	W	100%
2-3	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	84-80	L	0%
2-8	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	82-85	L	0%
2-10	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	82-67	W	100%
2-15	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	A	64-67	W	100%
2-17	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	A	91-77	L	0%
2-22	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	86-83	W	100%
2-24	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	69-74	L	0%
3-1	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	78-101	W	100%
3-3	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	75-64	L	0%
3-6	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	N	68-76	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Idaho St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Idaho St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Idaho St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Idaho St.	BSky	26.44	26.44	44.44	44.44	-2.94	-2.94
Southern Utah	BSky	6.16	6.16	33.33	33.33	-2.05	-2.05
Weber St.	BSky	4.57	4.57	61.54	61.54	1.06	1.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	4.50	4.50	58.62	58.62	0.78	0.78
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.44	4.44	17.86	17.86	-2.86	-2.86
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.43	4.43	14.29	14.29	-3.17	-3.17
North Dakota	BSky	4.41	4.41	32.14	32.14	-1.57	-1.57
Portland St.	BSky	4.41	4.41	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
Cal St. Northridge	BW	3.69	3.69	15.38	15.38	-2.55	-2.55
Eastern Washington	BSky	3.01	3.01	54.84	54.84	0.29	0.29
Montana	BSky	2.95	2.95	76.67	76.67	1.57	1.57
Idaho	BSky	2.85	2.85	71.43	71.43	1.22	1.22
Montana St.	BSky	2.80	2.80	37.93	37.93	-0.67	-0.67
Utah Valley	WAC	1.99	1.99	64.29	64.29	0.57	0.57
Seattle	WAC	1.90	1.90	55.17	55.17	0.20	0.20
BYU	WCC	1.88	1.88	69.70	69.70	0.74	0.74
Washington St.	P12	1.88	1.88	36.67	36.67	-0.50	-0.50
San Jose St.	MWC	1.88	1.88	7.14	7.14	-1.61	-1.61
Arizona St.	P12	1.87	1.87	63.33	63.33	0.50	0.50
Youngstown St.	Horz	1.84	1.84	20.69	20.69	-1.08	-1.08
UC Davis	BW	0.36	0.36	66.67	66.67	0.12	0.12
UC Riverside	BW	0.28	0.28	24.14	24.14	-0.14	-0.14
UC Irvine	BW	0.28	0.28	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.27	0.27	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
Utah St.	MWC	0.27	0.27	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.27	0.27	25.81	25.81	-0.13	-0.13
Pepperdine	WCC	0.26	0.26	16.13	16.13	-0.18	-0.18
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.25	0.25	62.07	62.07	0.06	0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.25	0.25	70.00	70.00	0.10	0.10
UNLV	MWC	0.24	0.24	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.23	0.23	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Portland	WCC	0.23	0.23	24.14	24.14	-0.12	-0.12
Stanford	P12	0.23	0.23	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.23	0.23	84.85	84.85	0.16	0.16
Hawaii	BW	0.22	0.22	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.21	0.21	73.33	73.33	0.10	0.10
Oregon St.	P12	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.20	0.20	64.71	64.71	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.20	0.20	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Washington	P12	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Utah	P12	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	83.33	83.33	0.10	0.10
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	3.33	3.33	-0.11	-0.11
Colorado St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
UMKC	WAC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.09	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Butler	BE	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01